Moody’s cuts India outlook to negative, predicts ‘prolonged slower growth’

Moody’s projects a budget deficit of 3.7% of GDP in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government’s target of 3.3%.

India’s credit ratings outlook was cut to negative by Moody’s Investors Service, the first step toward a downgrade, as concerns mount the economic slowdown will be prolonged and debt will rise.

Moody’s projects a budget deficit of 3.7% of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government’s target of 3.3%, as slower growth and a surprise corporate-tax cut curbs revenue. The foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade score.

India’s growth outlook has deteriorated sharply this year, with a crunch that started out in the shadow banking industry spreading to retail businesses, carmakers, home sales and heavy industries. Growth has come down to a six-year low of 5%, with Moody’s saying there’s a low chance of sustained growth at or above 8%.

“A prolonged period of slower economic growth would dampen income growth and the pace of improvements in living standards, and potentially constrain the policy options to drive sustained high investment growth over the medium-to long term,” William Foster, vice president of Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group, wrote in a statement. The SGX Nifty 50 Index Futures declined 0.4% in Singapore as of 6:57 a.m. in Mumbai. The dollar-rupee one-month non-deliverable forwards rose after the Moody’s statement.