Chhattisgarh exit polls leave everyone guessing yet Congress, BJP confident

The BJP and intelligence agencies predict a narrow victory for the ruling party, while the Congress projects a victory for itself.

Chhattisgarh exit polls: In Chhattisgarh, all government work has been at a standstill since the final round of polling on November 20. Naya Raipur or Atal Nagar, as it is now known, bears a forsaken look with an occasional road-side worker watering the flower beds on its shiny new streets.

But Mantralaya at the end of the Ekatma Path – usually buzzing with activity – now resembles an abandoned yard. The only thing that evokes any interest is the mention of the word parivartan. Is it coming? No? Have ‘they’ managed to hack the EVMs? Everyone has a theory. No real answers are possible till December 11.

Results we bring you will paint a picture of who might prevail in Chhattisgarh. Data is not hard to come by in Raipur. There are several expert teams set up by Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, state BJP and Congress units, local news channels as also intelligence agencies that have been mining for the past two months. The Wire breaks it down one-by-one based on metadata gathered from all possible sources, coupled, of course, with perceptions.

Read our full coverage on Chhattisgarh Assembly Election 2018

The BJP: The party used state-of-the-art technology which allowed it to track every constituency for its mood, turnout, caste divisions, issues etc. It provided real-time information to its candidates based on the information it received from the field.

For instance, in Bindranavagarh it received information that other tribal sub-sects were angry over the chief minister attending and praising Mali samaj while campaigning. It immediately mobilised and worked on the rest of them and tried to salvage the situation…

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Chhattisgarh election 2018: 74 of 285 millionaires candidates belong to BJP

ADR analysed the self-sworn affidavits of 1,256 of 1,269 candidates. The affidavits of 13 candidates were not analysed as they were badly scanned or complete affidavits were not available

As many as 145 out of 1,256 candidates (12%) contesting the 2018 Chhattisgarh assembly elections analysed have declared criminal cases against themselves and 98 candidates have “serious” criminal cases, according to a report by Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), an advocacy.

“Serious” criminal cases include attempt to murder, kidnapping & assault. This is an increase from 11% (113 of 983) in 2013, the analysis show.Crorepati candidates (assets more than Rs 1 crore) increased to 285, or 23%, from 213 (of 983 candidates analysed) in 2013.|BUSINESS STANDARD 

ADR analysed the self-sworn affidavits of 1,256 of 1,269 candidates. The affidavits of 13 candidates were not analysed as they were badly scanned or complete affidavits were not available. The elections are being held in two phases–the first phase was held on November 12, 2018 for 18 seats and the second phase polling will be on November 20, 2018 for 72 seats.

Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J) has (BS) most candidates with criminal cases

Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J)–founded by former chief minister Ajit Jogi–has the most (32%, or 18 of 56) candidates with criminal cases against them, followed by Congress (28% or 25 of 90), Aam Aadmi Party (21% or 17 of 83), Bahujan Samaj Party (9% or 3 of 34), Bharatiya Janata Party (7% or 6 of 90) and independents (7% or 39 of 556).

As many as 18 of 90 (20%) constituencies are called “red alert constituencies” where three or more candidates have declared criminal cases against themselves. Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J) also has the most (29% or 16 of 56) candidates with serious criminal cases, followed by Congress (17% or 15 of 90) and AAP (16% or 13 of 83).

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Chhattisgarh polls: Why BJP’s popularity is sliding in the tribal heartland

In the first phase of its assembly elections on November 12, 2018, Chhattisgarh witnessed a 70% voter turnout in tribal areas

BUSINESS STANDARD– Deep in the forested heart of eastern-central India, at the clearing of the Hasdeo Arand forest, paddy farmer Nanasaheb Armo (58) sat atop a fallen sal tree trunk, his shoulders sinking, as he silently surveyed the destruction.

Thousands of trees were chopped and strewn across land larger than a football field. The silence was punctured only by the noisy beeping of a hydraulic mining shovel, at work in a nearby open-cast mine. Armo and his Gond tribal community knew this forest to be theirs for generations– and to which they were given official titles five years ago.|Chhattisgarh Polls

But their subsequent dispossession and anger is a story that explains how mineral-rich forest land in tribal areas is being taken back by the state of Chhattisgarh. With 31% of its population tribal–more than any other large Indian state–the (BS) unrest now threatens the re-election prospects for a three-term Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government.

In the first phase of its assembly elections on November 12, 2018, Chhattisgarh witnessed a 70% voter turnout in tribal areas. If the second phase registers a similar higher-than-normal turnout on November 20, 2018, it could reflect the discontent over the slow progress of individual tribal land claims–more than half of which have been rejected–and the particular struggle for community claims in the mineral-rich north.

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