UK stands to lose $16 bn on EU exports in case of no-deal Brexit: UN

The economists said “this is a conservative estimate,” since it only takes into account the raising of tariffs from the current zero percent that Britain pays on exports within the EU

Britain could lose at least USD 16 billion annually on exports to the European Union if it leaves without a deal and possibly billions more on trade beyond the bloc, UN economists said Tuesday.

In a fresh report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) found that “a loss of preferences in the EU market consequent to a no-deal Brexit will result in UK export losses of at least USD 16 billion” (14.6 billion euros), representing seven percent of its overall exports to the bloc. The economists said “this is a conservative estimate,” since it only takes into account the raising of tariffs from the current zero percent that Britain pays on exports within the EU.

“In reality, the losses would be much greater because of non-tariff measures, border controls and disruption of existing UK-EU production networks,” they warned. The UNCTAD economists said Britain’s total merchandise exports last year stood at around USD 450 billion, and that its exports to other EU countries accounted for about half of that amount.

The report was released as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson lost his working majority in parliament ahead of a showdown with rebel MPs over fears he is steering the country towards a no-deal Brexit next month, which could lead to a snap election within weeks.

“The nearing Brexit deadline, along with increased uncertainty on outcomes, is problematic for UK exporters,” UNCTAD said in a statement, urging London to quickly seek policy solutions to provide at least short-term relief to the “Brexit crunch”.

Brexit: Theresa May needs to outline her ‘Plan B’ or risk second referendum

House of Commons to vote on various Brexit options on January 29

International News: Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been thrown out by Parliament. She’s now in talks with rival politicians to find a way forward before presenting a Plan B on Monday. If her plan isn’t convincing, then British lawmakers will try to take over the process. That could mean keeping much closer ties to the bloc, or even a second referendum. With just 10 weeks to go until the U.K. is due to leave the European Union, what are the most likely scenarios?

Brexit in Name Only, and Not Quite Yet

Keeping close ties to the EU’s single market and customs regime might be the best way of getting a Brexit deal that Parliament can support, though May has ruled it out. It’s known as “Norway-Plus” or “Common Market 2.0” to its supporters and “Brexit in Name Only” to its detractors. Critics have a point: this scenario would leave the U.K. taking rules from Brussels and wouldn’t address one of the main pledges of the referendum campaign — that uncontrolled immigration from Europe would stop. Businesses would mostly be pleased.

To get there, members of Parliament propose motions or amendments that show there’s support for the idea. The government asks for an extension to the Brexit day deadline of March 29 and reopens talks with the EU. The Withdrawal Agreement remains unchanged, including the much-loathed Irish border backstop. But the declaration on future ties is rewritten, making it very unlikely the fallback option will ever be used…

Read More : Brexit Deal