The economists said “this is a conservative estimate,” since it only takes into account the raising of tariffs from the current zero percent that Britain pays on exports within the EU
Britain could lose at least USD 16 billion annually on exports to the European Union if it leaves without a deal and possibly billions more on trade beyond the bloc, UN economists said Tuesday.
In a fresh report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) found that “a loss of preferences in the EU market consequent to a no-deal Brexit will result in UK export losses of at least USD 16 billion” (14.6 billion euros), representing seven percent of its overall exports to the bloc. The economists said “this is a conservative estimate,” since it only takes into account the raising of tariffs from the current zero percent that Britain pays on exports within the EU.
“In reality, the losses would be much greater because of non-tariff measures, border controls and disruption of existing UK-EU production networks,” they warned. The UNCTAD economists said Britain’s total merchandise exports last year stood at around USD 450 billion, and that its exports to other EU countries accounted for about half of that amount.
The report was released as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson lost his working majority in parliament ahead of a showdown with rebel MPs over fears he is steering the country towards a no-deal Brexit next month, which could lead to a snap election within weeks.
“The nearing Brexit deadline, along with increased uncertainty on outcomes, is problematic for UK exporters,” UNCTAD said in a statement, urging London to quickly seek policy solutions to provide at least short-term relief to the “Brexit crunch”.
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