18.9 mn salaried people lost jobs since April, 5 mn in July, says CMIE

The loss of around 5 million jobs in July comes after around 3.9 million jobs were gained in June, as per the data

The number of salaried people losing their jobs amid the coronavirus pandemic has surged to 18.9 million since April, with around 5 million jobs lost last month, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The loss of around 5 million jobs in July comes after around 3.9 million jobs were gained in June, as per the data. In April, 17.7 million salaried jobs were lost, followed by 100,000 job losses of salaried employees in May. “While salaried jobs are not lost easily, once lost, they are also far more difficult to retrieve. Therefore, their ballooning numbers are a source of worry,” the centre’s CEO Mahesh Vyas said.

ALSO READ: 6.1 million youth may lose jobs in India due to Covid-19: ADB-ILO report

“Salaried jobs were nearly 19 million (190 lakh) short of their average in 2019-20. They were 22 per cent lower than their level in the last fiscal year,” he added. The latest CMIE data also showed that around 6.8 million daily wage earners lost their jobs during this period. However, around 14.9 million people took to farming during this period….Read Full Story

Covid-19 impact on GDP to be felt for years in advanced economies: Fitch

Huge uncertainties surround the economic outlook in aftermath of the massive shock in H1 2020

The impact of coronavirus will continue for years as GDP levels in the largest advanced economies remain around 3 to 4 per cent below their pre-virus trend path by the middle of this decade, Fitch Ratings has said in a new report.

“There will be lasting damage to supply-side productive potential from the coronavirus shock as long-term unemployment rises, working hours fall, and investment and capital accumulation slow,” said Maxime Darmet, Director in Fitch‘s Economics team. Huge uncertainties surround the economic outlook in aftermath of the massive shock in H1 2020. The path that the coronavirus outbreak will take is unknown.

“Repeated waves of new infections and renewed nationwide lockdowns could see a very sluggish recovery while medical breakthroughs could result in a rapid normalisation of economic activity,” said Fitch in the report. A reasonable base-case working assumption for the purpose of economic analysis is that the health crisis gradually eases over time, with renewed nationwide lockdowns avoided and virus containment sought through more targeted responses.

Covid-19 impact: India services PMI falls to lowest ever in April

India’s services activity collapses as coronavirus palayses global economy -PMI

India’s services activity suffered a shock collapse in April as the coronavirus lockdown crippled global demand, causing a historic spike in layoffs and reinforcing fears of a deep recession in Asia’s third-largest economy, a private survey showed. The grim result for the industry, the engine of economic growth and jobs, underlined the pandemic’s sweeping impact across India as authorities extended a nationwide lockdown, in effect since March 28, until May 17.

The Nikkei/IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers’ Index plunged to an eye-popping 5.4 in April from March’s 49.3, an unprecedented contraction since the survey first began over 14 years ago. It also shattered a Reuters poll forecast of 40 and was way off the 50-level separating growth from contraction, with the single-digit outcome marking by far the most extreme result among major economies. “The extreme slide in the headline index, which fell by over 40 points, shows us that the strict lockdown measures have led to the sector essentially grinding to a complete standstill,” Joe Hayes, an economist at IHS Markit, said in a release.

The steep downturn in activity underlined the widespread havoc wrought by the pandemic worldwide, with many fearing the worst global recession since the 1930s. All of the survey’s key gauges plummeted. An index measuring foreign demand for services ceased to an unprecedented 0.0, while an overall demand index also fell to an historic low and firms laid off workers at the quickest clip ever…Read More

US faces biggest job crisis since Depression; Trump may reopen economy soon

Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have projected a negative growth in the US in 2020

US President Donald Trump has favoured safe and phased reopening of the American economy, which has been devastated by the coronavirus pandemic that has killed more than 50,000 people and infected over 800,000. More than 95 per cent of the country’s 330 million people are under stay-at-home order as a result of the social mitigation measures including social distancing till May 1. Trump on Thursday indicated that this might be extended beyond May 1, but forcefully advocated the need to gradually open up the economy that is safe.

ALSO READ: Coronavirus LIVE: India cases rise to 23,039; global cases at 2,718,699

In the past few weeks, more than 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits and the figure is soon likely to cross 40 million. Unemployment in the US is swelling to levels last seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s, with one in six American workers thrown out of a job by the coronavirus, according to a data quoted by the Associated Press. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have projected a negative growth in the US in 2020.

“To keep America gaining momentum, every citizen needs to maintain the vigilance, and we all understand that very well we’ve gone over it many, many times this includes practising good hygiene, maintaining social distance, and the voluntary use of face covering,” he said. “Safe and phased reopening of our economy it’s very exciting, but it does not mean that we are letting down our guard at all in any way; on the contrary, continued diligence is an essential part of our strategy to get our country back to work to take our country back,” Trump added…Read More

IT companies may shed up to 40,000 mid-level employees: Mohandas Pai

‘It’s going to happen again and again and again every five years,’ said Pai

India’s information technology services companies may shed 30,000 to 40,000 middle-level employees this year as growth slows down, IT industry veteran T V Mohandas Pai said Monday. The former Chief Financial Officer of IT major Infosys Ltd termed these job losses as once-in-five-years normal phenomenon with maturing of the industry.

“As in all sectors in the West, in India too when a sector matures so many people will be there in the middle level who will not be adding value to the salary they get,”Mohandas Pai PTI. Promotions are okay when companies are growing fast but when it slows down, people getting fat salaries will aggregate at the higher level, prompting companies to periodically reset their pyramids, and shedding people, he said.

“It’s going to happen again and again and again every five years,” said Pai, Chairman of Aarin Capital and Manipal Global Education Services. “Nobody is entitled to a fat salary and high-paying job unless you perform, right? You have to deliver value”. “All across industry, may be 30,000 to 40,000 in a year…,” he said when asked about the number of middle-level staff who would lose their jobs. But Pai said about 80 per cent of those who lose jobs would have employment opportunities in industries in general if they are specialists….

Demonetisation, 3 years on: A look at impact on key sectors of the economy

With three years of data available to back or reject the various assertions and assumptions, Business Standard looks at the Modi govt’s most disruptive economic measure, the ‘note ban’

On November 8, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced to the nation that Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes — 86 per cent of all currency notes in circulation in value — would cease to be legal tender. The stated objectives were unearthing black money, cracking down on counterfeit currency, and choking terror financing.

Unsurprisingly, there were strong reactions both in favour of and against the unprecedented move, which would come to be known as ‘demonetisation’ or ‘note ban’. While some hailed it as a courageous step against impropriety that was hurting the economy, others saw the move itself as disastrous for the economy.

In the months that followed, even as reports suggested that the government had not come any close to achieving its stated objectives, the government was seen patting itself on the back for the country’s move towards becoming a ‘cashless’ economy, or, as the PM said, a ‘less-cash’ economy. Many called this an act of ‘moving goal posts’ and rushed to label demonetisation as an economic nightmare. Three years later, we have enough data to analyse and gauge the impact of the note-ban exercise on various important sectors of the economy.

Jobs

According to Labour Bureau’s Sixth Annual Employment-Unemployment Survey, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high in 2016-17, when the government demonetised old currency notes. In 2017-18, the country’s unemployment rate stood at a 45-year-high of 6.1 per cent, according to the National Sample Survey Office’s (NSSO’s) periodic labour force survey (PLFS). Moreover, demonetisation caused a 2-3-percentage-point reduction in jobs and national economic activity in November and December 2016, according to a research.

Recalling when and what went wrong necessary: FM on ‘worst phase’ remark

Conceding that there were some “weaknesses” in his regime, former PM Manmohan Singh had on Thursday said the Modi government should stop blaming the UPA for every economic crisis

Recalling when and what went wrong during a certain period is absolutely necessary, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said, targeting former prime minister Manmohan Singh for accusing the NDA government of always trying to put the blame on its rivals. Conceding that there were some “weaknesses” in his regime, Singh had on Thursday said the Modi government should stop blaming the UPA for every economic crisis, as five years were sufficient time to come up with solutions.

“I respect Dr Manmohan Singh for telling me not to do the blame game. But recalling when and what went wrong during a certain period is absolutely necessary to put it in context, now that I’m being charged that there’s no narrative at all about the economy,” Nirmala Sitharaman told a group of Indian reporters here on Thursday. She was responding to a question on allegations by Singh that the government was always trying to put the blame on its opponents instead of finding solutions.

The senior Congress leader’s comments at the press conference in Mumbai came after Sitharaman at an event at the Columbia University in New York held the Manmohan Singh-Raghuram Rajan combination responsible for subjecting public sector banks (PSBs) to their “worst phase”.

Sitharaman dubs India ‘the best place for investors’, promises more reforms

Responding to a question on why investors should allocate funds for India, she said that even if the court system is a bit delayed, India is a transparent and open society

Investors can find no better place in the world than India that has a democracy loving and capitalist respecting environment, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said. She also assured international investors at an interaction session at the IMF’s headquarters that the government was continuously working to bring reforms.

“It (India) is one of the fastest growing (economies) even today. It has the best skilled manpower and a government that is continuously doing what is required in the name of reforms, above all democracy and rule of law,” Nirmala Sitharaman said on Wednesday.

Responding to a question on why investors should allocate funds for India, she said that even if the court system is a bit delayed, India is a transparent and open society. The rule of law works and there are a lot of reforms happening, even those to cut down delays, she said. “So you will not have anything better… democracy loving, capitalist respecting environment… in India,” Sitharaman said at the event hosted by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry in association with the US India Strategic and Partnership Forum.

Responding to questions from major insurance companies, who urged her to remove the cap on investment in this sector, she said the government needs to understand what the expectations of the sector are other than removing of the cap...

Best day in a decade: Markets salute exit polls verdict, hit record highs

Investor sentiment was buoyed by exit polls predicting that the BJP, with the help of its coalition partners, will comfortably reach the majority mark

Market News: The benchmark Sensex and Nifty hit new unequaled high on Monday after leave surveys demonstrated the decision Narendra Modi-drove Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was set to win a second term in the general races finished up on Sunday.

The Sensex climbed 3.75 percent, or 1,422, to finish at 39,353, while the Nifty50 file vaulted 421, or 3.7 percent, to close at 11,828. Both files outperformed their past record highs addressed April 16. This is the greatest one-day gain in 10 years in point terms and the most since September 2013 in rate terms.

Financial specialist assessment was floated by leave surveys anticipating that the BJP, with the assistance of its alliance accomplices, will easily achieve the dominant part mark, mollifying market fears that an adjustment in routine at the Center would crash monetary changes.

The benchmark lists had declined 6 percent subsequent to hitting an unsurpassed high a month ago, incompletely because of fears that the Congress-drove resurgent Opposition would make it trying for the Modi government to hold control in the wake of agrarian trouble and rising joblessness.

“The leave survey result is a major estimation promoter. We anticipate that the rally should proceed till the last outcomes are out (May 23). Markets could broaden the additions significantly further if the last outcome reflects the leave survey projections,” said A Balasubramanian, CEO, Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund.

In the previous three sessions, the Sensex has increased 2,238 points, or 6 percent, deleting all misfortunes for the month. Mahesh Nandurkar, India strategist, CLSA India, said that a solid command for the Modi government implies worries on populist steps, for example, money exchanges and homestead credit waivers will presumably decay…

Punjab job crisis: Note ban haunts as labour pleads for work at 1/3rd wages

Most end up consenting to compensation as low as Rs 150-Rs 200 while the official the lowest pay permitted by law is Rs 311.12 for an untalented worker and Rs 375.62 for a talented worker

Stress had put profound wrinkles on Balkara Singh’s temple however he was only 32 years of age. The day by day wage specialist, wearing a blurred blue sweater and pants, has gone to the Gol Diggi work center in southern Punjab’s Bathinda city each and every day throughout the previous five years to search for employments. Since the finish of 2016, he has returned home frustrated generally days. As well as could be expected trust in were around 10 days of work in a month, he said.

Neediness drove Balkara out of school when he was in Class 2 and his solitary dream was to see his kids – matured four and six- – complete their training. His little house in Amargarh town where he lives with his significant other, kids and guardians, is around 14 km from Gol Diggi. It takes two transport changes and Rs 30 to achieve the center point.

When we met Balkara toward the beginning of April 2019, he was never again beyond any doubt if his fantasy could ever worked out as expected. The move by the Narendra Modi government in November 2016 to pull back 86% of India’s money, by esteem, had thumped the scrape the bottom of the easygoing employments division which kept running on money installments – farming, little scale material units, chaotic retail organizations, and the travel industry as IndiaSpend has announced.

ALSO READ: When getting a new line of work turned into a bad dream in Bengaluru after note boycott, GST

Five million men, for the most part from the chaotic segment, lost their employments over the two years following demonetisation, said another report ‘Territory of Working India 2019’. This most recent gauge of occupation misfortunes was distributed by the Center for Sustainable Employment (CSE), Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, and discharged on April 16, 2019. The numbers would have spiraled if ladies somehow managed to be incorporated into the examination. As Punjab cast a ballot on May 19 in the progressing general races to the Lok Sabha, we investigate the state’s casual occupations emergency.

The joblessness rate in Punjab in November 2016- – when demonetisation was reported – was 4.9%, which expanded to 6.1% in December 2016 as indicated by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, a consultancy. This joblessness rate achieved 8.9% in June 2017 and further expanded to 9.2% on the main commemoration of demonetisation in November 2017. In October 2018, the figure achieved 11.7%, and by February 2019, recorded 12.4%…

5 million men lost their jobs after demonetisation, says SWI 2019 report

Though the report does not establish any causal link with the note ban, it says the labour force participation started falling suddenly between September and December 2016 for both urban and rural men

Economy News: According to an analysis by Bengaluru-based Azim Premji University researchers, five million men lost their jobs between 2016 and 2018. The beginning of the decline in unemployment coincided with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation of high-value currency notes on November 8, 2016. The university released its State of Working India 2019 (SWI 2019) report here on Tuesday, adding to the already raging debate over employment generation at a time when India votes to elect a new government.

The government has not released the results of the new high frequency Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO). In its absence, the researchers have used data from the Consumer Pyramids Survey of the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE-CPDX) to understand the employment situation between 2016 and 2018. The CMIE-CPDX is an ongoing nationally representative panel survey of around 160,000 households, conducted every four months.

According to the report, the labour force participation started declining suddenly between September and December 2016 for both urban and rural men. The rate of decline slowed down by the second half of 2017, but the general trend had continued and there had been no recovery, SWI 2019 said, adding that though the timing of the decline coincided with demonetisation in November 2016, the researchers could not bring any causal link based on these trends. The Work Participation Rate (WPR) declined as well but not as sharp as the Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR).

SWI 2019 found that between January to April 2016 and September to December 2018, the urban male LFPR fell by 5.8 percentage points while the WPR for the same group fell by 2.8 percentage points. The SWI report states that the unemployment rate has steadily increased to around 5 per cent in 2015 and then just over 6 per cent in 2018. Both the PLFS and the CMIE-CPDX report the overall unemployment rate to be around 6 per cent in 2018, double of what it was in the decade from 2000 to 2011…