The bulk of seats that the BJP may lose is likely to be picked up by the Congress, dramatically altering its leveraging ability
Elections: There is unanimity that the keen contest resulting in a photo finish in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has thrown open the race for 2019. It makes sense therefore, to examine electoral statistics from the past and visualise emerging trends. Needless to say that in addition to the two states, Chhattisgarh – in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost too – is part of the Hindi heartland of north India. It is one of the two regions that propelled Narendra Modi to power in 2014. When we talk about the Hindi heartland, it refers to ten states – Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and the Union Territory of Chandigarh.
Although not really a separate region, the two other states in northern India – Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir – have to be treated separately while discussing politics in a general framework. But within the context of the BJP’s performance in 2014, these can also be clubbed with the heartland region for calculations in the run up to Elections 2019.
hese dozen states and the lone UT account for a total of 245 Lok Saha seats, of which the BJP won 196 in 2014. In addition, if you add the seats won by its allies in Bihar and UP, the total is a difficult to repeat 211. Essentially, in this block of states – which elects almost 45% of Lok Sabha members – the BJP’s opponents won just 34 seats at the height of the “Narendra Modi wave”.
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