2019 elections: BJP may lose 70% seats in Hindi heartland, Congress to gain

The bulk of seats that the BJP may lose is likely to be picked up by the Congress, dramatically altering its leveraging ability

Elections: There is unanimity that the keen contest resulting in a photo finish in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan has thrown open the race for 2019. It makes sense therefore, to examine electoral statistics from the past and visualise emerging trends. Needless to say that in addition to the two states, Chhattisgarh – in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost too – is part of the Hindi heartland of north India. It is one of the two regions that propelled Narendra Modi to power in 2014. When we talk about the Hindi heartland, it refers to ten states – Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and the Union Territory of Chandigarh.

Although not really a separate region, the two other states in northern India – Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir – have to be treated separately while discussing politics in a general framework. But within the context of the BJP’s performance in 2014, these can also be clubbed with the heartland region for calculations in the run up to Elections 2019.

hese dozen states and the lone UT account for a total of 245 Lok Saha seats, of which the BJP won 196 in 2014. In addition, if you add the seats won by its allies in Bihar and UP, the total is a difficult to repeat 211. Essentially, in this block of states – which elects almost 45% of Lok Sabha members – the BJP’s opponents won just 34 seats at the height of the “Narendra Modi wave”.

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Rajasthan: Anger against the Raje govt has made the Congress’ job easier

BJP has tried to talk up a rivarly between Pilot and Gehlot but there seems little concern about who the Congress’ CM would be

Rajasthan Assembly Election 2018: On the ground, circumstances were seldom as propitious for the Congress as they are now in Rajasthan, two days before the state votes on November 7. Agrarian distress has taken its toll in the countryside, with farmers, including the better-off ones, complaining that they did not get the minimum support price or MSP for their produce because the state government was willing to pick up just one crop, groundnut. Giridhar Saini, who farms his 80 bigha (approximately 50 acres) of land in Laxmangarh village on the Bikaner highway, has ploughed his savings into the fruit business because he found the returns from bajra and moong dal, paltry.

“I raised a bumper moong crop this season but there are no takers for moong because the market is glutted with imported dal. Why did the government do this to me?”asked Saini. Compounding his woes was the bitter aftertaste of “note bandi”. “I had land to sell. Before demonetisation, it was worth Rs 5 lakh. I made a mistake by not selling it then. I needed money for my daughter’s marriage but no buyer would give more than Rs 2 lakh because they had deposited most of the liquid cash they had in banks. In desperation, I sold my land for Rs 3 lakh less than the original price,” said Saini.

At Lalsi village in the Sikar district, Ram Niwas Meel, a Jat farmer, said he was an inveterate Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporter ever since he came of voting age. “This time, I will not vote the BJP. I get only five hours of electricity in short phases and little returns on the channa, garlic, onions and wheat that I grow,” said Meel, adding, “We farmers who are used to planning for the future five years in advance now live from hand to mouth.”

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