600 million people at risk: Climate change may soon turn critical in India

Climate change is likely to make rainfall erratic, lead to rising seas and make extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and heat waves-like the one currently sweeping large parts of India

That is the warning delivered by N H Ravindranath, the scientist who is tasked with preparing the first national study on the impacts of climate change, even as he describes how unprepared India is in terms of data and planning.

Climate change is likely to make rainfall erratic, lead to rising seas and make extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and heat waves–like the one currently sweeping large parts of India–frequent, according to the latest report of the United Nations body to assess climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Communities and livelihoods nationwide have already been affected by climate change, as IndiaSpend reported in a seven-part series from India’s climate-change hotspots.

Yet India, where one in every seventh person on the planet lives, has no national study on the impact of climate change, although about 600 million people are at risk from its effects. This is set to change over the next few months of 2019. Ravindranath, a climate scientist at the Centre for Sustainable Technologies of the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) is currently heading a study that will assess the impact of climate change across regions and sectors. His assessment, which is likely to be the bedrock that will inform climate-related policy, will be submitted to the Indian government and the United Nations (UN).

Human activities have already caused warming of one degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, according to a 2018 IPCC report. By 2030, or latest by mid-century, global warming is likely to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius. In March 2019, Ravindranath headed the first study that analysed climate change in India’s Himalayan Region (IHR). The study found, as IndiaSpend reported, that all 12 Indian states studied–including Assam, Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)–are “highly vulnerable”, with little capacity to resist or cope.