There will be a coronavirus vaccine, likely by 2022-end: Zavaray Poonawalla

Founder-Director Serum Institute of India tells Business Standard that India’s social containment of the epidemic so far has been good

Serum Institute of India recently partnered Codagenix, a US-based biotech drug research company, to develop a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. Its Founder-Director Zavaray Poonawalla tells Business Standard that India’s social containment of the epidemic so far has been good. Edited Excerpts: How is India doing as far as managing the whole social community distancing factor goes, with the advent of the COVID-19? Are our numbers of confirmed cases being under-reported?

I think we are taking it very seriously and perhaps that’s a good thing in a country with the size of our population. In practical terms, people are avoiding crowds, flights have been halted and large events delayed. We have as a country in other spheres shut down activities like cricket, racing and other sporting and business events, and I think we can’t do very much more than that. The numbers we are seeing seem to indicate we are doing better than the rest and while I can’t say if they are being under-reported, I do know that our health care infrastructure is not large enough, which is why over-awareness is a good thing.

How bad is this epidemic so far as India is concerned?

It’s a virus with a big scary name but we have had viruses earlier. Now, a new one has emerged. So it’s getting to be seen as the bad one until it is understood better, and we are indeed doing so day by day. If you recall the swine flu pandemic that emerged in 2009, it was equally terrifying because it was the exact opposite, which is very few young people were immune to it, and it spread from country to country, much faster than the present one. Today, swine flu is more of a seasonal type of flu and can be vaccinated against with part of your annual flu shots.

RBI balance sheet must be strong, says Bimal Jalan committee report

To maintain resilience, the committee suggested a relatively smaller transfer than what was anticipated.

The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) balance sheet should be strong enough to support banks if there is a need to recapitalise them during a financial crisis, said the report of the committee to review the economic capital framework (ECF) of the central bank.

India, with one the lowest sovereign ratings, and not having a reserve currency to boot, should not think that risky actions by the government would still be as safe as advanced economies, said the panel headed by former RBI governor Bimal Jalan.

“The fact that ELA (emergency liquidity assistance) operations by the AE (advanced economy) central banks did not result in losses for them should not draw the central banking community into any false sense of complacency about the riskiness of such actions,” the report, released on the RBI website on Tuesday, said. “Had the AEs, which are ‘issuers of reserve currencies’, not followed up their ‘qualitative easing’ programmes with the very significant ‘quantitative easing’, it is possible that their ELA operations could have ended very differently.”

As a stark warning to the government, which now seems to be depending upon the RBI transfers to bridge the fiscal deficit, the committee said the centre’s manoeuvrability on recapitalisation of commercial banks or of the RBI could be constrained during a financial stability crisis….

Next cold war coming? Depends on how China chooses to respond to US tariffs

Could the US and China really be on the verge of the kind of geopolitical stalemate that dominated the second half of the 20th century?

President Donald Trump is making good on his pledge to escalate the trade war with China by imposing tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese government, for its part, is already retaliating with new taxes on $60 billion of American imports.

If you’re curious why China’s sanctions don’t match Trump’s, there’s an easy explanation. As a number of commentators have correctly pointed out, Beijing is running out of American products to target. Americans bought $375 billion more stuff from China than the Chinese bought from the US last year, which means Trump has a lot more to punish.| International News 

That’s because China has many other ways to retaliate, such as dumping its considerable holdings of US debt or making it harder for Trump to get a nuclear deal with North Korea. In these and other areas, Beijing has enormous leverage. This has led some to suggest that the trade war may soon turn into a “new cold war.”

Could the US and China really be on the verge of the kind of geopolitical stalemate that dominated the second half of the 20th century? Much will depend on how China responds to the latest tariffs. I believe that this response could take four forms.

Cooler (BS) heads

First, China could choose to de-escalate the confrontation. This could be done quickly by negotiating some resolution with the Trump administration – though the president’s terms for ending the trade war remain unclear.

Alternatively, China could let the conflict simmer by keeping the fight in the trade arena, allowing it to continue to retaliate while appearing “reasonable.” This approach would avoid any major embarrassment for China while kicking the dispute down the road in the hope that the November elections, or the 2020 presidential elections, will soften American policy. In fact, China has already said that it won’t negotiate until after the midterms.

Keep Reading = Business Standard

Sikkim standoff: China's economic stakes in India is no worry for Beijing

India may hold the promise of a big market for China, but that promise is yet to be fulfilled

 

The sikkim standoff between India and China over a border dispute in the Sikkim region has given rise to speculation over how the latter would respond to the situation. The Chinese leadership has ruled out any talks with India until the Indian troops vacate what it considers to be its territory. In response, the Indian foreign secretary has noted that differences should not become disputes between neighbours.

But the stalemate continues, bringing into sharp focus its impact particularly on China’s economic ties with India. On social media including many WhatsApp groups, a campaign is already on to show how Indians can respond to China by rejecting goods that are produced in that country and sold in India.(economy policy)

It is a campaign charged with nationalistic emotion. But how seriously can such a campaign really impact Chinese exports or investments? To assess that, it is important to look at some numbers on India’s trade with China and the flow of Chinese investments into India.

There is no doubt that Chinese direct investments in India have been rising steadily. From being the 37th largest foreign investor in India in 2011, it has now scaled up to the rank of the 17th largest foreign investor in 2017.

 INDIA-CHINA foreign trade

That appears to be a fast rise in the pecking order, but actually the size of total Chinese investments in India and the annual flows are very little, almost insignificant either as a share of India’s total foreign investment or as a per cent of China’s total investments abroad.

Consider the following numbers. Between April 2000 and March 2017, India received cumulative foreign investments of over $332 billion. Of this, however, China’s share is only $1.63 billion. In 2010-11, China invested only about $2 million in India. That year, India had received total foreign direct investments (FDI) of over $14 billion..

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