RBI may ‘kill excess demand’ in economy in six-eight months

 The RBI increased the limit for keeping specified securities in the HTM portfolio from 22 per cent to 23 per cent

With inflation remaining at elevated levels, central banks around the world, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), will kill excess demand in economy over the next six to eight months, sources in the know said. They also indicated that there could be a rate hike in June, when the inflation forecast for the current financial year would be raised. The RBI, the sources said, might announce more steps such as raising the limit on held-to-maturity (HTM) bonds to support government borrowings but might not come out with any further quantitative easing GSAP (Government Securities …….

India will frame cryptocurrency law after global consensus: Report

 India’s central bank has openly voiced its opposition to private digital currencies.

India will frame a legislation for cryptocurrencies only after a global consensus emerges on regulating such assets, according to a person familiar with the matter. The government isn’t planning a law soon to either regulate or tighten provisions, the person said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. A finance ministry spokesman wasn’t immediately available for a comment.

After years of back-and-forth, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration announced a 30% tax on income from digital assets from April 1, making it costlier to trade and bringing such transactions at par with activities like horse racing and lotteries. It had earlier planned to come up with a legislation to make the government’s stand clear on the matter.

A global uniform approach on cryptocurrencies is needed and steps by one nation will not be sufficient, Modi said in his address to the World Economic Forum in January. The central bank has openly voiced its opposition to private digital currencies, equating them with Ponzi schemes and said they were a threat to financial sovereignty. Crypto investments have flourished in India after the country’s top court set aside restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of India in March 2020. An October report from Chainalysis, a crypto-analysis firm, found the Indian market grew 641% from July 2020 through June 2021.

PM Modi to hold review meeting with banks, his first since Covid outbreak

Agenda not known yet, but meeting via video conferencing likely to be on credit flow especially to MSMEs

Current Affairs: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to hold a meeting with the chief executives of state-owned and private banks on Wednesday. This is the first meeting that the Prime Minister (PM) is going to hold with the brass of financial institutions after the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting will be held through video conferencing, a bank executive said.

“The agenda of the meeting hasn’t been circulated yet. But it is expected that the PM will discuss credit flow to the economy, especially the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and map the progress of the government’s Covid-19 package,” another bank executive said, requesting anonymity.

A finance ministry official said that the announcements of the government so far relied heavily on restarting economic activities with the help of financial institutions and the PM wants to take stock of the progress. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is also expected to attend the meeting. Apart from major public sector banks, top executives of some private lenders such as Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and the Indian Banks’ Association are also expected to be present in the meeting on Wednesday.

PM Modi launches job scheme for migrant workers in UP

PM Modi will launch ‘Atma Nirbhar Uttar Pradesh Rozgar Abhiyan’. RBI to hold virtual board meeting. Stay tuned with Business Standard for the latest news of today

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will today hold its first virtual board meeting since the outbreak of Covid-19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will launch the ‘Atma Nirbhar Uttar Pradesh Rozgar Abhiyan’, which seeks to promote local entrepreneurship and create partnership with industrial associations to provide employment opportunities.

According to an official statement, the Uttar Pradesh government envisaged the Atma Nirbhar Uttar Pradesh Rojgar Abhiyan (self-reliant UP employment campaign) to dovetail central and state government’s programmes, while also creating partnerships with industry and other organisations.Stay tuned for the latest news of the day

PM Gareeb Kalyan Rozgar Scheme in Uttar Pradesh would take in its ambit three types of beneficiaries, says PM Modi

The scheme would take in its ambit three types of beneficiaries, including those employed through ‘atmanirbhar abhiyan’ (self-reliant scheme), labourers engaged in industrial houses in the micro, small, medium enterprise (MSME) sector and those provided loans through banks and financial institutions for self-employment. 

PM Modi and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath are virtually reaching out to the local and migrant population in six of 31 target districts — Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Bahraich, Gonda, Siddharth Nagar and Jalaun

I am Indira Gandhi’s granddaughter, not an undeclared BJP spokesperson: Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi

“I am Indira Gandhi’s granddaughter, not an undeclared BJP spokesperson like some of the opposition leaders,” Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra says, as she alleges that UP govt is threatening her through various departments for speaking truth..Read More

Covid-19: RBI slashes reverse repo rate by 25 bps, no change in repo rate

Earlier, the RBI had reduced the repo rate to a 15-year low of 4.40 per cent by announcing a steep cut of 75 basis points on March 27, only two days after the national lockdown was imposed

Addressing the media for the second time since the Narendra Modi government imposed a national lockdown on March 25, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced a reduction in reverse repo rate by 25 basis points from 4 per cent earlier to 3.75 per cent now. The reduction in reverse repo rate is one of a slew of announcements made by the RBI governor today. This was his first address since the lockdown was extended till May 3 by the Prime Minister. “The mission is to minimise the epidemiological damage in the country due to coronavirus. I want to convey the RBI’s resolve and the way forward,” said the RBI governor.

Here are the additional measures announced by the RBI governor in his address today:

• Liquidity management: Will undertake TLTRO 2.0 operations. LTRO of Rs 50,000 cr to begin with in many tranches for NBFCs
• 50% of the funds in TLTRO 2,0 is for small and medium-sized NBFCs
• A special Rs 50,000 crore refinance facility for Nabard (RS 25,000 crore), Sidbi (Rs 15,000 crore) and NHB (Rs 10,000 crore)
• 60% of ways and means advances allowed to states until September 30, 2020
• NPA classifications will exclude the three-month moratorium period till May-end
• NBFCs allowed to grant relaxed NPA classification to their borrowers…

RBI follows global central banks, cuts repo by 75 bps to fight coronavirus

The move comes after the global central banks have been cutting rates to help shore up the economy amid coronavirus pandemic

Following in the footsteps of global central banks, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday lowered the key repo rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 4.4 per cent, to help arrest the economic slowdown in the wake of the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. The reverse repo rate now stands at 4 per cent, down 90 bps.

Repo rate is the rate at which a country’s central bank lends money to commercial banks, and reverse repo rate is the rate at which it borrows from them. MPC voted 4-2 in favour of the reduction of the repo rate by 75 bps, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in an address to media. The governor informed that the members of the MPC met on March 24, 25 and 27. “It is our effort to ensure normal functioning of the market,” Das said. The governor further said that the economic growth and inflation projection would be highly contingent depending on the duration, spread and intensity of the pandemic. “Need of the hour is to shield the economy from the pandemic,” Das added.

Meanwhile, liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been reduced by 90 bps to 4 per cent while cash reserve ratio (CRR) has been slashed by 100 bps to 3 per cent. Earlier, the US Federal Reserve had lowered the interest rates, bringing it near zero, in another emergency move to help shore up the US economy amid the rapidly escalating global coronavirus pandemic. The Fed had cut interest rates by half a percentage point on March 3, too, in its first emergency cut since the financial crisis of 2008.

YES Bank gets Rs 60k-cr line of credit from RBI to resume operations

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday had said the regulator was ready to offer liquidity if required

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has extended a credit line of Rs 60,000 crore to YES Bank to ensure that the bank is able to meet its obligations to depositors as it resumed its full-service operations on Wednesday, according to sources familiar with the development. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday had said the regulator was ready to offer liquidity if required.

“YES Bank has enough liquidity to meet any requirements. If required, the RBI will provide necessary liquidity support to it,” he said. “Never in the history of banks (in India) have depositors lost money. The point is, depositors’ money is absolutely safe,” Das had said in a conference, adding that the central bank’s support should come as a “comforting factor for depositors”.

However, this is a case of the RBI being the “lender of the last resort”, and, in accordance with the terms of the arrangement, the bank will have to use its immediate liquid assets before it can touch the credit line, sources said. This is perhaps for the first time that the RBI has come with such an arrangement. YES Bank gets Rs 60k-cr line of credit from RBI to resume operations In the past it preferred merging troubled banks with solvent ones. There is a technical reason for that even as the RBI officials did not spell it out in the press conference on Monday.

YES Bank AT1 bond write-down reflects distinct treatment for private banks

The bailout scheme requires YES Bank to write down about Rs 8,700 crore ($1.2 billion) of outstanding AT1s

Rating agency Standard and Poor’s on Monday said the decision to write-down YES Bank’s additional tier-1 (AT1) bonds highlights the distinction in India in treatment of instruments issued by public sector banks and those from private banks. This would create losses for asset managers and raise capital costs for issuers. A complete write-down would likely raise the risk premium that investors price into Indian hybrids, said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Deepali Chhabria.

The bailout scheme requires YES Bank to write down about Rs 8,700 crore ($1.2 billion) of outstanding AT1s. AT1 investors have filed a petition in court against the RBI, YES Bank and the government. Media reports indicate that parties are exploring an out-of-court settlement, with AT1 investors clamoring for conversion of AT1s into equity.

Under the Basel III framework, AT1 instruments are designed to be loss-absorbing tool. The holders of the debt might not get repaid in the event of financial stress. Indian regulations state that such instruments should absorb losses while the bank remains a going concern. RBI’s decision to permanently write down YES Bank’s AT1s was in line with the agency’s view that these instruments will absorb losses at private sector banks, not public sector banks, rating agency said. Indian banks’ AT1s categorically provide that any capital infusion by the government of India into the issuer as the promoter in the normal course of business may not be construed as a point of non-viability trigger. The thinking goes that, since the government owns the bank, it has the right to inject capital into the lender…

Read More On YES Bank

YES Bank fiasco: RBI asks states not to withdraw funds from private banks

‘We strongly believe that such a move can have banking and financial sector stability implications,’ the letter stated

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday urged the chief secretaries of all states to not withdraw deposits from private sector banks for the sake of financial sector stability, and assured them of the safety of these funds. The government of Maharashtra recently closed one account with Axis Bank, and decided to transfer funds from the private sector to public sector banks. The state government also advised its various departments to not put funds with private sector banks in view of the YES Bank fiasco. A few other state governments are also contemplating similar actions.

“We strongly believe that such a move can have banking and financial sector stability implications,” the letter, signed by RBI Deputy Governor N S Vishwanathan, stated. “We would like to point out that the Reserve Bank has adequate powers to regulate and supervise private sector banks, and by using these powers, it has ensured that the depositors’ money is entirely safe,” Vishwanathan said. Business Standard has reviewed a copy of the letter. The apprehension about the safety of deposits is “highly misplaced” and such a “reactive decision” will not be in the interests of the stability of the financial system in general and the banking system in particular, he said.

The resolution of weak private sector banks in the past has been done in a manner that the “depositors are not put to loss”. In the case of YES Bank too, after the imposition of a moratorium, the RBI drew up a draft scheme “without any delay”, the deputy governor wrote, adding that the central bank was making “every effort to expedite the finalisation of the scheme”.

YES Bank bondholders say will withdraw court plea if RBI accepts offer

Overall, more than Rs 8,000 crore of investments are exposed to YES Bank’s AT-1 bonds

Investors in YES Bank’s additional tier-1 (AT-1) bonds have written to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that will accept the regulator’s offer where they can recover at least 20 per cent of investments and will subsequently withdraw petition from Bombay High Court (HC). The bondholders, in a letter sent through Axis Trustee Services, proposed that they be allotted a minimum 1,700 million shares in proportion to their current exposures.

As a result, the imputed value will work out to Rs 10 per share, which would approximately amount to Rs 1,700 crore. This will lead to “salvaging near-about 20 per cent of the principal outstanding,” the note said. Further, the bondholders have requested that the lock-in features, if any should be restricted upto 36 months in-line with the proposed new equity issuance of issuing bank. The trustee also pointed out that if the above terms are acceptable, the majority bondholders of AT-1 bonds — for which Axis Trustee is acting — shall not purse any further legal recourse and will instruct to withdraw the current petition. Axis Trustee has filed a petition at Bombay HC on behalf of the bondholders, seeking relief on RBI’s proposal for full writedown of YES Bank‘s AT-1 Bonds.

However, legal arguments are yet to begin in the court, with the matter still in pre-admission stage. Meanwhile, L&T and L&T Officers and Supervisory Staff Provident Fund also moved HC on Wednesday, seeking relief against RBI’s move. Overall, more than Rs 8,000 crore of investments are exposed to YES Bank’s AT-1 bonds.

Yes Bank depositors rush to ATMs but most unable to withdraw cash

In the residential area of suburban Chembur, one ATM was dispensing cash but had a long queue of anxious depositors

Harried Yes Bank depositors rushed to ATMs to withdraw cash but faced multitude of problems including closed down machines and long queues, after the RBI placed the bank under a moratorium, capping maximum withdrawals at Rs 50,000 per account for a month. Aggravating the problems of depositors were difficulties accessing the internet banking channel, which ensured that they can’t transfer the funds online as well.

At an ATM in south Mumbai’s Horniman Circle, with the RBI headquarters overlooking it, the shutters were pulled down. The guard on duty said the machine was non-operational before he reported to work late in the evening and he was ordered to shut it after 2200 hrs.

In the residential area of suburban Chembur, one ATM was dispensing cash but had a long queue ofanxious depositors. One man said it was still possible to withdraw up to Rs 50,000 in multiple transactions from the machine. However, another machine nearby had run dry within minutes of the RBI announcement, a woman said. The regulatory actions, undertaken by the RBI and the government, came hours after finance ministry sources confirmed that SBI was directed to bail out the troubled lender. For the next month, Yes Bank will led by the RBI-appointed administrator Prashant Kumar, an ex-chief financial officer of SBI.

Keep Reading: Yes Bank News

RBI supersedes board of troubled YES Bank, sets Rs 50,000 withdrawal limit

Lender placed under moratorium; withdrawal capped at Rs 50,000; govt, central bank flag governance issues

Yes Bank Crisis: The reserve financial institution of india (rbi) on thursday superseded the board of bothered non-public zone lender sure financial institution and imposed a 30-day moratorium on it “within the absence of a credible revival plan” amid a “serious deterioration” in its financial fitness.

Former country financial institution of india chief economic officer prashant kumar has been appointed administrator of yes bank, and every depositor could be capable of withdraw only up to rs 50,000 in overall until the moratorium is in vicinity, the rbi said in two reputableStatements issued on thursday evening. but, in amazing situations together with a clinical emergency or marriage, depositors can withdraw up to rs five lakh or the quantity lying in account, whichever is less.

That is the first time that a financial institution of this size may be positioned beneath a moratorium by means of the rbi. at some point of the moratorium, which got here into impact from 6 pm on thursday, sure bank will now not be allowed to grant or renew any loans, and “incur any liability”, except for payment closer to personnel’Salaries, rent, taxes and prison fees, amongst others. The imperative bank stated the decision became taken within the public interest and inside the interests of the financial institution’s depositors, and that it turned into left with “no opportunity”…

RBI approves Aadhaar-based video authentication as alternative to e-KYC

Video KYC will have to be verified through Aadhaar

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday allowed video-based authentication as an alternative to the accepted e-KYC (know-your-customer) practices, but such verification will be Aadhaar-based, either online or offline.

The need for video-KYC was proposed in the report of the Expert Committee on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, headed by UK Sinha, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in June last year. The panel observed that currently for conducting even e-KYC, the customer has to be physically present and the whole process takes lots of data handling. On the other hand, in video-KYC, the whole process can be done simply through a video chat where the customer can display documents. Such video-KYC can be done through Google Duo or Apple FaceTime, the committee had recommended.

However, experts pointed out that considering these applications were of foreign origin, the RBI would unlikely allow them. Under the data protection Bill, the central bank is unwilling to let companies store customer data in foreign locations. The RBI master direction did not mention what application can be used for video chat. But experts say it is likely that the government will have to develop such an app specifically for video-KYC whose servers will be located onshore. The RBI accepted the recommendations and amended its master direction on KYC…

More scope to cut interest rates, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

Das said he hoped a recent trade deal between the United States and China would hold and not be reversed

There is scope for cutting interest rates further and the central bank will use it when required after studying the growth and inflation data, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Monday. The monetary policy committee (MPC) surprised markets and analysts this month by holding rates steady after trimming the key interest rate by 135 basis points since the beginning of the current rate reduction cycle in February.

“While taking a pause we, very carefully and very definitely, said there is space for further monetary policy action, but the timing will have to be decided in a manner that its impact is optimum and its impact is maximised,” Das said at a conclave organised by the Times media group. Das said the markets were surprised when the committee started cutting rates in February but subsequently accepted that it was right in doing so. “And this time, the pause we have taken, I do hope that events will unfold in a manner which will prove that the MPC decision is right,” Shaktikanta Das said.

He said both the government and the central bank had taken steps to help the economy recover but the outcome of events in the global economy would play a role. Das said he hoped a recent trade deal between the United States and China would hold and not be reversed. The “Phase one” agreement reduces some US tariffs in exchange for a big jump in Chinese purchases. “What is important in the current context is coordinated and timely action by all the advanced and emerging economies to revive growth,” he said.

“Growth is an issue of discussion in India and global growth is also an issue of discussion because that does impact. For a moment, I am not implying that the slowdown that we have seen in India is entirely due to global factors, but it does impact growth prospects for India.”

YES Bank share sale: Erwin Singh Braich, family offices may not be included

Bank plans to raise $1.75 billion; in talks with five European institutions: Ravneet Gill

YES Bank is likely to skip issuing shares to family offices in favour of institutional investors in the current round of its preferential issue, where the bank plans to raise $1.75 billion, its managing director and chief executive officer, Ravneet Gill, has said.

This means Erwin Singh Braich, GMR Group, and Aditya Birla Family Office, which had all put in bids, may not get a piece in the bank’s stake sale. Denying reports of a forced merger being thrust upon the bank, he said he was confident of raising the target funds soon.

“Large European financial institutions regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority have shown an interest in the bank,” Gill told Business Standard in an interview. “Since the talks are at an advanced stage, the bank will reveal the names of these investors once it enters into a binding agreement with them,” he added. It is understood that YES Bank has received an interest from four to five financial institutions, and one of them could take as much as 10 per cent in the bank. Others are expected to pick up a 4-5 per cent stake each.

Gill said that since these investors are well-governed and established names, they should pass the ‘fit and proper’ test of the Reserve Bank of India. “When these bids become binding and once we disclose the names, then nobody would have any concerns with regard to the quality of investors or their ability to put in the money. So, it will effectively put a lid on the issue once and for all,” Gill said.

Braich had bid for $1.2 billion in the proposed $2-billion stake sale, while the Citax group evinced interest to the tune of $500 million. Other family offices were to put in about $100 million, according to a YES Bank release. Gill said, “As far as Indian investors and family offices are concerned, we have told them that for this capital raise, we have to go for the institutional route.”

Rupee is the worst performer in emerging Asia as RBI tries to lift economy

The RBI bought has about $18 billion of foreign exchange since the end of September.

The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to support the flagging economy are turning out to be a bane for the rupee. The currency is the worst performer in emerging Asia this quarter, and analysts say that’s because the central bank is mopping up dollars gushing into local stocks and bonds.

The RBI bought has about $18 billion of foreign exchange since the end of September, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics. While the purchases have propelled reserves to a record, the rupee has fallen about 0.7% since Sept. 30.

Weakness in the rupee despite robust inflows is seen as a sign the central bank wants to curb a sharp appreciation in the currency that can hurt exports. With slew of data pointing to weak economic activity, boosting shipments is high on agenda for the government.

“Part of the rupee’s under performance is deliberate,” said Mitul Kotecha, a senior EM strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “Higher reserves prove that the central bank is probably making determined efforts to keep the rupee’s competitiveness.”

The RBI has said it does not target any particular level of exchange rate and steps in only to curb undue swings in the currency. Though, as the rupee was heading for its worst quarterly decline in a year in the three months ended September, Governor Shaktikanta Das said September 19 that the currency is fairly valued, indicating tolerance for a weaker rupee.

RBI deputy guv M K Jain flags concerns over rising stress in Mudra loans

Banks need to focus on repayment capacity at the appraisal stage and “monitor the loans through the life cycle much more closely, said M K Jain

Economy News: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor M K Jain on Tuesday expressed concern about the rising bad debt level in Mudra loans. Speaking at a SIDBI event on microfinance, Jain said with the growing mobilisation of financial services, banks must enhance the capabilities of borrowers so that individuals in the new income group could not merely avail the offered services but are also capable of demanding preferred products and service suitable to their needs and choices.

“Mudra is a case in point. While such a massive push would have lifted many beneficiaries out of poverty, there have been some concerns at the growing level of non-performing assets (NPAs) among these borrowers,” Jain said.

Banks, therefore, need to focus on repayment capacity at the appraisal stage and “monitor the loans through the life cycle much more closely”, he said. This is not the first time a central bank official is warning against the rising bad debt to banks.

In a meeting with public sector bank chiefs in July, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had red-flagged the high bad debt in the collateral free loans, according to sources. There are three categories of loans under Mudra: Shishu, covering loans up to Rs 50,000; Kishor, covering loans above Rs 50,000 and up to Rs 5 lakh; and Tarun, covering loans above Rs 5 lakh and up to Rs 10 lakh…

RBI relief for PMC Bank depositors, withdrawal limit hiked to Rs 40,000

RBI said it reviewed the bank’s liquidity position and, with a view to reducing the hardship of the depositors, it decided to further enhance the limit

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased the withdrawal limit for depositors of Punjab and Maharashtra Co-operative (PMC) Bank to Rs 40,000. This is the third withdrawal limit increase by the RBI, in which it has increased the withdrawal amount. On September 24, the RBI set the withdrawal limit at Rs 1,000 per account, which it increased to Rs 10,000 the next day. On October 3, this limit was increased to Rs 25,000.

The RBI said it reviewed the bank’s liquidity position and, with a view to reducing the hardship of the depositors, it decided to further enhance the limit. With this relaxation more than 77 per cent of the depositors will be able to withdraw their entire account balance. In a statement, the RBI said a forensic auditor had been appointed by the administrator to look into the related transactions. Economic Offenses Wing of the Maharashtra Police is already investigating the matter.

Joy Thomas pins blame on Wadhawans, Waryam Singh

Joy Thomas, the suspended managing director of Punjab and Maharashtra Co-operative (PMC) Bank, in his interrogation by the Economic Offences Wing (EOW) of Mumbai Police, revealed he was acting on the instructions of Housing Development & Infrastructure (HDIL) promoters Rakesh and Sarang Wadhawan and former PMC Bank chairman S Waryam Singh to hide the bank’s bad debts given to HDIL Group from regulators and falsifying accounts to paint a rosy picture of the bank…

RBI rejects merger of lndiabulls Housing Finance with Lakshmi Vilas Bank

The bank had sought approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on May 7, 2019

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday rejected the proposed amalgamation of lndiabulls Housing Finance and Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB), two weeks after the banking regulator initiated prompt corrective action (PCA) against the Chennai-based bank.

The RBI said the application for the voluntary amalgamation of lndiabulls Housing Finance (IBHFL)  and its subsidiary lndiabulls Commercial Credit with LVB could not be approved. LVB officials declined to comment on the matter.

IBHFL in its statement to the stock exchanges said, “Now that the merger will not happen with Lakshmi Vilas Bank, the uncertainty of the last five months on the business is lifted and the company will focus on its growth of the core business of housing finance.”

IBHFL also said it was considering a buyback of equity shares of the company, for which it has called a board meeting on October 14. “The company upon buyback of securities will have a ratio of aggregate of secured and unsecured debts to the paid-up capital and free reserves of not more than 6:1 on standalone and consolidated basis,” the statement said…

Monetary policy review: Another rate cut may not help Indian economy

The larger problem here is that government finances are already in a hole; that would be a problem even if the tax cut were the best-designed in history

It’s almost universally expected in India that the central bank’s monetary policy committee will lower interest rates this week. Many expect it to keep cutting until the policy rate hits 5 per cent by the end of the year; it was 6 per cent in June, and the committee cut it by an unexpected 0.35 percentage points in its last meeting to bring it down to 5.4 per cent. The arguments for a cut are manifold: The Indian economy is clearly spluttering, with growth coming in at a shocking 5 per cent in the last quarter for which data is available; consumer price inflation stands at 3.2 per cent, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s mid-point target of 4 per cent; and industry is loudly complaining that high real rates are depressing investment.

Even the hawkish monetary policy committee, which critics complain has consistently over-estimated inflation in the past, is unlikely to be able to ignore that combination of factors. Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das told the Bloomberg India Economic Forum last month that “there’s room for a rate cut, especially when growth has slowed down.” The bond market has already been given reason to cheer this week, after the government kept its target for borrowing in the second half of the financial year constant, at Rs. 2.7 trillion.

But the RBI would be wise to be cautious. The government in New Delhi won reelection in May by throwing money at the electorate, particularly rural voters. More recently, panicked by the sharp slowdown in growth, it has responded with fiscal measures that are likely to stress its finances, including a big cut in corporate income tax rates last month (though the eventual fiscal stress of that cut might be less than originally feared, given that exemptions are also being phased out)….